A Better Market Doesn’t Have to Mean Higher Prices

I don’t think Fergus and Elora need another price surge to have a healthier real estate market. What we need is more people able to make a move that works for their life and their budget.

September’s local numbers show the difference.

Centre Wellington had 47 residential sales in September, up from 45 a year earlier, according to PropTx MLS® data. The median sale price was $750,000, down from $840,000.

Neither number should be overread. Two extra sales isn’t a rebound, and a monthly median moves with whichever homes happened to sell. A $90,000 drop in the median doesn’t mean every home in Centre Wellington is worth $90,000 less.

But slightly more people made a move, and they didn’t need a higher median price to do it. That deserves attention.

Your sale price is only half the decision

It’s understandable to want your home to sell for what it might have fetched at the peak. There’s nothing wrong with wanting the best possible result.

The problem starts when that old number becomes the condition for making any move at all.

If you’re selling and buying again, you need to look at both sides. What will you keep after the mortgage and selling costs? What does the next property cost? What will the new payment leave you with each month?

Selling costs deserve a hard look, because they’re one of the few numbers you control. On a $750,000 sale, the gap between a 1% listing fee and a typical 2% to 2.5% is $7,500 to $11,250, before HST.

A lower sale price can hurt. It can also come with a more attainable next purchase. Neither is guaranteed, which is why a headline about prices can’t tell you whether your move makes sense.

I’d rather work through that math with you than tell you to wait for “the market to come back.” Come back to what, and at what cost on the buying side?

Cheaper borrowing won’t fix everything

In an October 1 speech, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers named the problem directly: lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, but when housing supply is limited, stronger demand can push prices higher.

That’s not much of a win for a buyer if the savings on financing disappear into the purchase price.

There’s also no reason to build a budget around rate cuts. In its September decision, the Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% and pointed to uncertainty around trade, energy prices and inflation. None of that starts in Centre Wellington, but all of it can affect the financing and confidence behind a local purchase. The next decision is October 28.

My view is simple: a move should work with the financing available to you today, not depend on a better rate arriving later. A mortgage approval tells you what a lender will allow. You still need room for repairs, everyday expenses and changes in income.

We need somewhere sensible to move to

Centre Wellington’s Housing Action Plan, now in development, gets at another part of this. The Township’s own assessment found local housing is mostly single detached homes, with limited rentals and a growing need for accessible, age-friendly options. It also estimates that about one in six households can’t afford their housing.

That matters to anyone whose current home no longer suits them. Wanting to stay in Fergus or Elora isn’t enough if the alternatives don’t fit your needs or your budget.

I’d like to see the local housing conversation spend more time on those choices: different sizes, different layouts, and both ownership and rental options. Announcing a plan is one thing. Getting useful housing built is the test. If you have a view, the Township is still gathering input this fall.

What I’d do this fall

I wouldn’t read September’s figures as a reason to rush or a reason to give up. I’d use them as a reason to put current numbers on the table.

Get a realistic valuation. Price out the next step just as seriously. If the whole move works, an old peak price doesn’t have to hold you back. If it doesn’t, waiting may be the right call.

If you’re weighing a move, start with a home valuation. I’ll give you a realistic number and work through what the whole move would leave you with.